I mostly use data provided by credible institutions [IMF etc], makes it easier to benchmark. However, I do believe China is more than it lets on - and we tend to underestimate them. We need to really study their structural gaps and optimize strategy accordingly.
So your point is that the Chinese are intentionally hiding how good they are? If so, that’ll be the first time in history. The opposite is far more likely…
On the subject of demographics - whatever may come, let's note that the workers of the next generation are born already. This cohort is not lacking in numbers.. When counting those with a technical education, ie the category applicable to industrial competition, PRC has at its disposal a full order of magnitude more human capital compared to the US in this generation. And the US is slamming the door on immigration - solving the brain drain problem that has plagued all rising powers.
Dependence on foreign tech is likewise a dated appraisal. Huawei, far from crippled, is the leader in 5G and 5.5G+ infrastructure (to which US itself was late), and is also the world's leader in research staff. Albeit being overtaken by BYD in the latter measure. Chinese universities now outrank American and European ones.
On SOE's (as re exports) check out the bar chart (via tphuang from twitter or substack)
Instead of the stereotype of a planned economy, Chinese industry is now characterized by a degree of competition most westerners would be uncomfortable with. Cheers!
I agree overall. In my article, I didn't suggest that their tech prowess is lackluster. The U.S. ban on Huawei temporarily stalled their progress, but their resilience is evident, with their 5G success serving as clear proof.
I actually think Tech in China deserves a whole deep-dive in itself. From robotics, semiconductors, and AI to quantum technology and energy, they are pushing all critical levers for future growth.
Question for you:. Im an ex WSJ corrie in Brazil and covered the BRICs for 12 years for Forbes. I am now an analyst for The Coalition for a Prosperous America. Was wondering if I could run a few questions by you about China's manufacturing labor market and your thoughts on how they will fair in a world of nearly 100% tariffs? Is China's blue collar labor going to go thru what the US went through when China joined the WTO, or are they all going to be put to work making cyborgs? I find that hard to believe. Wondering if you have any thoughts on that. Find me on Twitter @BRICBreaker if interested and we can talk privately.
Superb insights always. Keep it up
Glad it helped, thanks!
How reliable is Chinese data?
I mostly use data provided by credible institutions [IMF etc], makes it easier to benchmark. However, I do believe China is more than it lets on - and we tend to underestimate them. We need to really study their structural gaps and optimize strategy accordingly.
So your point is that the Chinese are intentionally hiding how good they are? If so, that’ll be the first time in history. The opposite is far more likely…
On the subject of demographics - whatever may come, let's note that the workers of the next generation are born already. This cohort is not lacking in numbers.. When counting those with a technical education, ie the category applicable to industrial competition, PRC has at its disposal a full order of magnitude more human capital compared to the US in this generation. And the US is slamming the door on immigration - solving the brain drain problem that has plagued all rising powers.
Dependence on foreign tech is likewise a dated appraisal. Huawei, far from crippled, is the leader in 5G and 5.5G+ infrastructure (to which US itself was late), and is also the world's leader in research staff. Albeit being overtaken by BYD in the latter measure. Chinese universities now outrank American and European ones.
On SOE's (as re exports) check out the bar chart (via tphuang from twitter or substack)
https://substack.com/profile/130958606-pxx/note/c-110550736
Instead of the stereotype of a planned economy, Chinese industry is now characterized by a degree of competition most westerners would be uncomfortable with. Cheers!
I agree overall. In my article, I didn't suggest that their tech prowess is lackluster. The U.S. ban on Huawei temporarily stalled their progress, but their resilience is evident, with their 5G success serving as clear proof.
I actually think Tech in China deserves a whole deep-dive in itself. From robotics, semiconductors, and AI to quantum technology and energy, they are pushing all critical levers for future growth.
Could you share the chart somewhere not -X so others can see?
ok, I copied it to a note and updated ...
Brilliant analysis. Thank you.
JLM
www themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Tanvi:
Question for you:. Im an ex WSJ corrie in Brazil and covered the BRICs for 12 years for Forbes. I am now an analyst for The Coalition for a Prosperous America. Was wondering if I could run a few questions by you about China's manufacturing labor market and your thoughts on how they will fair in a world of nearly 100% tariffs? Is China's blue collar labor going to go thru what the US went through when China joined the WTO, or are they all going to be put to work making cyborgs? I find that hard to believe. Wondering if you have any thoughts on that. Find me on Twitter @BRICBreaker if interested and we can talk privately.